Stage 12 – Briançon to Alpe d’Huez – 165.5km – Thursday, July 14

After a wickedly hard day in the Alps, another tough stage looms on Thursday for the Tour de France. Stage 12 is slightly longer at 165.1km and has more climbing, with three hors categorie ascents, finishing with the summit of Alpe d’Huez.

After the Stage 11 fireworks, we’d expect Stage 12 to be slightly calmer. For one, with Jonas Vingegaard in yellow, responsibility for controlling the race falls to his Jumbo-Visma team, which is clearly the strongest in the race. Vingegaard has a two-minute lead on his nearest challenger, DSM’s Romain Bardet, so the team also has the luxury of being able to race defensively (at least for a day to let Vingegaard recover a touch from going so deep on Wednesday). The situation suits their broad team depth very well.

But the course may have something else to say. The climbing starts almost right out of the gate. From the start in Briançon, the peloton will roll past the turn to the Col du Granon climb that saw the race explode on Wednesday, and then ride back over the Col du Galibier from the way they came down yesterday. The descent is interrupted by the short (uncategorised, from this direction) bump over the Col du Telegraphe, and a fast, twisty drop to the valley before the Col d la Croix de Fer.

The Croix de Fer is not a steep climb by Alpine standards at just 5.2 percent average, but it lasts nearly 29 kilometres including several short downhill sections. It will definitely sap the legs. From there, it’s another descent and a flat section in the valley before the hard left turn for the 13.8km ascent to the finish on Alpe d’Huez. The forecast will be hot, with highs in the low 90s in the valleys and about 5-10 degrees cooler on the summits. Winds are generally light, and no rain is forecast.

Riders to Watch

For the early breakaway, look to teams that haven’t had big success this Tour but have good climbers. Bahrain-Victorious’s Damiano Caruso could be a player. BikeExchange-Jayco’s Nick Schultz would like another try after his near-miss on Stage 10. Pierre LaTour (TotalEnergies) and Cofidis’ Simon Geschke could rekindle today’s KoM rivalry with big points on offer. Trek-Segafredo’s Bauke Mollema is quietly looking strong. And of course, it’s trite to say the French want a win on Bastille Day, but it’s also kinda true. Aurélien Paret-Peintre of Ag2r-Citroën could be in the action, or Pierre Rolland of B&B Hotels. Of course, their chances depend greatly on what happens with the GC group. If Jumbo controls with an iron fist, they likely stay free. But if attacks come, look for Pogačar to possibly try to hit back at yesterday’s losses, while Nairo Quintana (Arkea-Samsic) is having his best form in several years. French win on Bastille Day? Romain Bardet might like a word, and a stage win, and the yellow jersey.

When to Watch

With the early climbing and Jumbo likely in firm control, expect an early breakaway to go clear. This one could go the distance, but that may depend on whether other GC riders try to challenge Vingegaard early. The obvious point to watch is the final climb on Alpe d’Huez, with its 21 famous switchbacks packed with legions of wild fans (hopefully not TOO wild). Expect the race to get there around 16h30, but you might want to keep an eye on things on the Croix de Fer (15h30) just in case.