As the new year approaches people often make health and fitness goals, such as picking up a bike, or to lose weight, or to maintain a healthier lifestyle. If your goal is weight loss, it makes sense to have a timeline and measurable benchmarks. But how much weight can you expect to lose in a month?

Sure, it’s okay to crack open your bullet journal if you’re into tracking that way, but don’t get too hung up on the numbers, says Susan Besser, M.D., family medicine expert with Mercy Personal Physicians at Overlea in Baltimore. “Rather, work on a healthier lifestyle—the weight loss will come,” she says. Exercise regularly, watch your portions, and choose whole foods over processed ones, and you can expect to lose weight at a healthy rate over time.

But if metrics are crucial to your motivation, both Besser and The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) agree that the average person should strive to lose no more than a little over a pound a week, which means you can lose about two to three kilos in one month. “The typical calorie deficit for most diets is about 500 calories a day. That translates to about half a kilo a week,” Besser explains. For most people, a 500-calorie shift in intake is manageable and, therefore, sustainable in the long run. Simply skip that afternoon latte, and you’re halfway there.

Lose Weight Sensibly, Sustainably

Tempted to wage a more aggressive plan of attack? Slashing additional calories may help you drop more weight in the same amount of time, but the long-term outcomes could be less than desirable. As anyone who’s ever undergone a food challenge or juice cleanse can attest, drastic diet changes nearly impossible to maintain over time. Plus, Besser says, rapid weight loss can have negative health effects. “Fast weight loss can cause loss of muscle mass rather than fat, and if you are eating unhealthily, you could cause metabolic changes and make yourself ill,” she says.

If you are looking to lose weight, it’s better to stick with a slow and steady approach, keeping in mind that general guidelines offer a baseline for weight loss, but human metabolism is more complex than a simple equation. An individual dieter’s actual results can be affected by a myriad of variables.

First of all, there’s your starting weight. “The heavier you are, the more weight you will lose in one month,” says Besser. Your sex is also a factor, as, thanks to hormonal makeup and body composition, men tend to lose weight faster than women. Additionally, certain medical conditions and medications, including steroids and anti-depressants, may cause weight gain in certain people and, therefore, hinder weight loss.

And even those who have consistently dropped a pound or more a week will most likely stall out or “plateau” before reaching their ultimate goal. “As your body loses weight, your metabolism slows down,” Besser says. “It becomes harder to lose the weight without either more exercise or fewer calories.” In other words, what worked for you six months ago may not continue to work.

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It’s also important to note that the numbers on the scale aren’t always the best indicators of progress, especially if your exercise routine includes resistance training (which it should). “You may be gaining muscle mass from the exercise,” Besser says. “Muscle is [more dense] than fat, so the scale may not reflect the change,” Besser says. In addition to tracking your weight, pay attention to how your clothes fit or snap a pic every couple weeks for easy side-by-side comparisons.

The bottom line: Weight loss goals are fine when approached with healthy habits and a healthy mindset, but avoid blindly chasing an arbitrary number. Focus on forming better health habits that are sustainable long term, and the rest will fall into place.

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