Big Thoughts for the Win

As with last year, Froome is the top favourite, even if he says he’s not, with 6/5 average odds and a 44.4 per cent implied probability* (meaning if you ran the Tour in a simulation 100 times, Chris Froome comes up in yellow in 44 of those runs). But while last year there was a bigger drop to Nairo Quintana as the second-most favoured rider, this year it’s closer: Porte is at 8/5 average odds and a 38.5 implied probability. Quintana is well down at 7/1 odds and just 12.5 per cent probability, likely because he raced the Giro d’Italia in an attempt to hit the Giro-Tour double.

I think oddsmakers are trying to split the difference between Froome’s historic success at the Tour and the fact that he comes to the race without a signature strong result. In fact, he doesn’t have a win of any kind yet this season – the first time since 2012 that he’s entered the Tour without a victory. That said, I have a hard time seeing Porte beat Froome, even on this course. Froome has a deeper team, for one thing.

Fantasy Take: I’d pick Froome over Porte. It’s a heavy cost, for sure, (but only four points more expensive) for a rider with far better historical results in Grand Tours (Porte’s fifth overall last year was by far his best GT ever, although it could’ve been second overall without that Stage 2 flat). So: Froome if you can afford him; Porte if those extra four points for Froome is a budget-buster.

Wildcards/Insurance Picks

I’d go with Fabio Aru or Alejandro Valverde.

Aru was out much of the spring with a knee injury but was solid at the Criterium du Dauphine and won the Italian national road title on Sunday with a solo move. He won’t win the Tour, but he’s a solid podium hope.

Valverde had an absolute dream spring, winning three major stage races, Fleche Wallonne, and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. After a long layoff, he looks to be in perfect tune for a Tour that is back-weighted to the third week for difficulties. No one is savvier or more experienced, and he can also hide behind Quintana a bit. Should Quintana falter at all, Valverde is poised to step in.

Elsewhere on the Board

As with last year, the rest of the field after Froome, Porte, and Quintana is at best a guess. Complicating factors slightly this year is the course, which is short on both time-trial kilometres and true mountaintop finishes, with really only three prototypical ones for the climbers. That could produce a race that’s very tight going into week three and jumble the leaderboard a bit. Here’s a look at some of the other riders getting better than 100/1 odds.

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Overvalued

Jakob Fuglsang (16/1 and a 5.9 per cent chance to win)
His Dauphine win was great, but I wonder if that was his peak form, while Aru was on the way back from injury. Plus: he’s weak in TTs and Fabio Aru, six years younger and a better long-term prospect for Astana, probably gets the team leadership.

Geraint Thomas is similarly expensive even at 54/1 odds.

I’ll confess, I don’t understand the fascination with him as a Grand Tours contender. Maybe on the right course he’s got Brad Wiggins-like potential, but not this year.

Dan Martin (94/1 and 12 points on Velogames, a leading site for fantasy Tour competitions)
Martin was third at the Dauphine and went on the attack on the last day. I’d personally like him to abandon GC here (his team is built around sprinter Marcel Kittel) and focus on stage wins or the KOM competition. Stages in particular are high-value in Velogames.

Louis Meintjes (just 10 points) had a good Dauphine and has a promising track record at Grand Tours (eighth at last year’s Tour, tenth at the 2015 Vuelta Espana) and might be the best young rider this year (he leads the betting odds in that competition).

Finally, what of Alberto Contador? He’s fourth-best for odds at 14/1 and 16 points on Velogames. I hate to say it, but I fear Contador’s career is on the downslope. Were it not for Valverde, we’d be talking about Contador’s exceptional spring. And their results the past two years have been very close to each other. But if push comes to shove, I’ll take Valverde over Bert, if only for the stronger team. Velogames works in part by awarding teammate points; if Quintana does well, Valverde will score based on his own standing and Nairo’s. Contador has no such backup at Trek-Segafredo.

RELATED: The Stages of the 2017 Tour de France

Quick Points

It’s interesting to see the skew on some riders across the board. Odds are usually tightly clustered, but going down the ranks you see some serious anomalies but overall, the bookmakers are in general agreement: the podium will be Froome, Porte and Quintana; Meintjes will be best young rider, and Peter Sagan is such an overwhelming favourite to win a sixth-consecutive green jersey title that he’s listed as 66.6 per cent implied probability there. Those predictions are generally in line with the pundits’ own.

I think riders like Aru and Valverde will surprise to the upside, while riders like Fuglsang and Thomas will end up lower down the standings than their oddsmaker predictions estimate. After all, the Tour, like any sports event, always has surprises in store that modeling and predictions can’t account for. That’s part of why they have the race.

*A note about Implied probability: This is important in betting and fantasy sports because it allows you to assess the value of an athlete against what the bookmaker says is his value. In other words, implied probability tells you the relative value and cost of those choices. For example: if you’re entering the fantasy TdF contest on Velogames, Froome will currently cost you 26 points of your 100-point budget for a nine-rider team. Richie Porte is 22 points, with a 38.5-per cent implied probability, and Nairo Quintana is 18 points and 12.5 implied probability. Quintana, therefore, is relatively expensive compared to Porte.