Stage 11 – Albertville to Col du Granon – 151.7km – Wednesday, July 13

If Stage 10’s finish on the the Megève Altiport runway was the warmup for the Alpine stages, things will get really hot on Stage 11. Literally: with highs around 33 degrees, the first real heat wave of the Tour will bake riders on this 151.7-kilometre mountain stage that should be pivotal for the overall standings.

The climbing doesn’t start right away; from the rollout in Albertville, the riders travel roughly south down a long valley before a brief diversion over the first climb, the picturesque Lacets de Montvernier. While steep, these stunning switchbacks aren’t long enough at just 3.4km to really do much (unless one of race leader Tadej Pogačar’s rivals uses them as a springboard for a long-range attack). But then the monster looms: the double ascent of the Cols du Telegraphe and Galibier. Except for five kilometres of gentle descent from the summit of the Telegraphe, it’s a 35km grind to the 2 642-meter summit of the Galibier, the race’s highest point this year. From there, the riders will descend toward Briançon and take a left onto the seldom-used Col du Granon for the climb to the finish. At 2 413m, the Granon is the highest summit finish of this year’s Tour—fully 1 000 meters higher than Tuesday’s Megève summit.

The Granon hasn’t featured in any race since the 1986 Tour de France, well before most of the current peloton was even born, so even if riders reconned it in training they’ve never done it in a race situation. It’s nasty, at 11.3km and 9.2 percent average gradient. What’s more, as is common with Alpine climbs, the slope is consistently steep: between 8.8 and 10.8 percent. There are no spots to recover, so if the race is full gas and steadily paced, any GC contenders who are dropped will be unlikely to catch back on. Outside of the heat, the weather looks straightforward: mostly sunny and with a light west wind.

Riders to Watch

After the big, aggressive (and successful) move on Stage 10, we may see less interest today, simply because it’s likely a day where the stage winner is a top GC contender. But any number of teams have missed out now on breakaways and the race is half over. So expect to see some kind of early move, likely with teams like Lotto-Soudal, BikeExchange-Jayco, and Cofidis. Then, watch for a possible mid-race attack by Jumbo or Ineos, which may try to put Pogačar in difficulty by sending a GC threat like Primož Roglič up the road. On the final climb, it’ll be all eyes on Pogačar, but Jumbo’s Jonas Vingegaard has been eagerly awaiting the long Alpine climbs. If Ineos is going to climb up the GC from fourth and fifth this is the time for Geraint Thomas or Adam Yates to show what they’ve got.

When to Watch

The Granon summit is absolutely must-see, as we expect a major fight among the overall contenders. Make sure you’re watching by 3pm. But things could start well before that if a team like Jumbo or Ineos is feeling aggressive. The Montvernier climb comes around 13h30, and that’s about the earliest we’d expect any major attacks to go clear if they aren’t waiting for the final climb.