Stage 5 – Lille Metropole to Arenberg Porte du Hainaut – 153.7km – Wednesday, July 6

One of the most anticipated—and feared, for many riders—stages of the 2022 Tour de France is here. The so-called “Roubaix” stage follows this year’s pattern of relatively short stages, but will feature 11 secteurs of narrow, rough cobble road, totalling 19.4 kilometres, of the kind normally found in the Paris-Roubaix classic.

What’s more, the two longest and hardest of those sections come relatively late in the race, where crashes and splits could have a major impact on the hopes of one or more overall contenders. But it’ll take a while to get there. From the start in Lille, the race heads generally south before encountering the first section not quite halfway through the race and then a long-ish break before a U-turn back north and the real start of the, uh, festivities.

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We expect to see an early breakaway go clear and, in contrast to the first three road stages, it could be a big one. Most of the stage favourites and of course the GC candidates will hold their energy in reserve, but things could start to get spicy around the second cobble sector. Luck, in the form of flat tires and crashes due to slippery dust and the sharp-edged cobblestones, will absolutely play a role.

The crux of the race is likely the final 30 or so kilometres. Roubaix cobble sectors use a 1–5-star rating for difficulty. There are no five-star sectors like the famed Arenberg forest on today’s route, but there are two four-star sectors. The first, Erre à Wandignies-Hamage, is at 30.3km to go. It’s the longest in the race at almost 3km and is followed in quick succession by the three-star de Warlaing à Brillon section (2.4km) and the four-star, 2.4km-long Tilloy-les-Marchiennes à Sars-et-Rosieres segment. With just a kilometre or three separating them, any splits that form on those cobbles likely won’t come back together.

Riders to Watch

There are two groups to keep track of in this stage: stage hopefuls and GC riders. The all-star duo of Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) and Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) are first and foremost among stage win candidates. After a string of second-place finishes, van Aert could just as easily start a string of stage wins. Van der Poel has been pretty quiet so far this Tour outside of leading out teammate Jasper Philipsen in sprints, but this stage has likely been marked on his calendar since last fall’s Tour route announcement. Other Classics candidates include Peter Sagan (TotalEnergies); the Trek-Segafredo trio of Jasper Stuyven, Mads Pedersen, and American Quinn Simmons; and of course Quick-Step’s lineup, including Stage 1 winner Yves Lampaert.

Among the GC riders, they’ll mostly be looking to stay up front and out of trouble. Riders with cobble experience and good support, like Geraint Thomas (guided by Ineos Grenadiers teammate and Paris-Roubaix winner Dylan van Baarle) and Jumbo’s Primož Roglič and Jonas Vingegaard will be looking to gain time on rivals. Less-advantaged hopefuls like Ag2r’s Ben O’Connor and Bora-Hansgrohe’s Aleksandr Vlasov, neither of whom have ever really raced on cobbles, will try to follow wheels and limit damage. Two-time defending champion Tadej Pogačar (UAE-Team Emirates) will be doing the same. He’s a good bike handler, but today’s a day that the COVID-forced withdrawal of teammate Matteo Trentin will be acutely felt if Pogačar is in difficulty.

When to Watch

The second half of the race (from around 16hoo) will likely be tense and exciting all the way to the finish, but definitely the final 30km (about 16h30). After the course U-turns back to the north, the cobble sections start in earnest. Riders may also be facing a rising crosswind from the west/northwest. It won’t be a gale, but 20km/h head/crosswinds with higher gusts could be a factor. That won’t affect the cobble sectors so much (drafting is secondary on cobbles to picking the least-bumpy path over them), but it means that pavement sections between them don’t provide much of a break from splits and echelons. No rain is expected.