Stage 9 – Aigle to Châtel Les Portes du Soleil – 192.9km – Sunday, July 10

The Tour’s first “week” ends with Stage 9, a mid-mountain stage that looks like the perfect opportunity for a breakaway to finally go the distance.

Starting in Aigle, home to the Union Cycliste International, the sport’s governing body, the first hour should be intense, as stage hunters and out-of-contention GC riders fight to join the breakaway. And with four categorised climbs on tap, including two Category 1 ascents, it’s also a great chance for riders hoping to score more points in the Tour’s King of Mountains classification, currently led by Denmark’s Magnus Cort-Neilsen (EF Education-EasyPost).

The climbing begins early as the race ascends away from the banks of Lac Leman via the Category 4 Côte de Bellevue (4.3km @ 4%). The road continues to climb steadily to the Intermediate Sprint in Semsales, where Belgium’s Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) will do his best to add more points to his lead in the Tour’s Points Competition by scooping up whatever’s left after the breakaway passes through (and don’t be surprised if green jersey goes on the attack to try and win the sprint himself).

The serious climbing comes in the second half of the stage, with the Category 2 Col des Mosses (13.3km @ 4.1%) and the Category 1 Col de la Croix (8.1km @ 7.6%). By this point the peloton will have decided whether or not it’s making a concerted effort to bring back the breakaway. If the break has a lead of 5 or 6 minutes, they should survive; 2 or 3 minutes, and they’ll likely be caught on or before the final climb.

After cresting the Col de la Croix, a descent brings the race back down into Aigle for another loop through the town. This time the riders turn left after leaving Aigle (instead of the right turn they made at the start of the stage) heading south toward Monthey and the foot of the climb out of the valley and into France for the finish.

While still a Category 1 ascent, the Pas de Morgins isn’t particularly challenging. It’s long and not very steep, which means we should see lots of attacks from the breakaway and a larger group of GC contenders forming behind them. The riders crest the summit just 9.8km from the finish line, with a short, technical descent before the final 4km uphill drag to the finish line in Châtel.

The weather should be beautiful, with sunny skies and temperatures in the 80s.

Riders to Watch

As we saw at the end of Stage 8, Slovenia’s Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) is always a threat to win a stage with an uphill finish. (When isn’t he a threat these days?) But we suspect the stage will go to a rider from a breakaway–especially since Saturday’s Stage 8 ended with a sprint, and fewer teams will be interested in keeping the race together.

As such, look for many of the riders and teams we mentioned as contenders for Stage 8 to throw their hats into the ring on Stage 9: the Netherlands’ Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo), Canada’s Mike Woods (Israel-PremierTech), and Slovenia’s Matej Mohoric (Bahrain-Victorious) great picks. They’ll likely be joined by a rider or two from BORA-hansgrohe, Ag2r Citroën, and Astana. A stage win before the rest day would allow all of these teams to breathe a bit more easily–especially BORA-hansgrohe and Ag2r Citroën, whose hopes of high GC finishes didn’t survive the first week.

When to Watch

The first hour of the stage could be fast with so many teams looking to put a rider or two in what we suspect will be a successful breakaway. The stage starts officially at 11h45, if you want to tune in to watch the early action.

Otherwise, the riders should start the final climb to the finish in Châtel around 15h45. It’s here where the final selection should be made, before the short descent from the summit and the final drag to the finish line determines the winner. Breakaways often produce exciting finishes, and this stage offers lots of options for the winning move to be made.