Tom Dumoulin Can Beat Team Sky & Win The Tour De France

He’ll need to ride aggressively in the mountains, forge alliances, and make almost no mistakes. But it can be done.


Joe Lindsey |

The 2018 Tour de France is three-quarters of the way over. But is it, you know, over?

Sky, as always, looks to be dominant. Over three hard days of racing in the Alps, the team withstood an onslaught of attacks and emerged not only intact but, if possible, stronger. Geraint Thomas won two stages in a row and has a commanding lead of 1:39 in the overall standings. The closest guy to him is his own teammate, four-time Tour winner Chris Froome. Sky also has super-domestique Egan Bernal, just 21 years old and riding in his first Grand Tour.

Things look, well, kinda dire for the other competitors. So allow me to gamely make an argument that the Tour isn’t over. There is still one man with the skill, experience, and talent to beat Sky: Tom Dumoulin.

Part of this is simple math. The gaps in the top-10 overall span seven minutes at this point in the race. Realistically, only four riders – Dumoulin, Primož Roglič, Romain Bardet, and Mikel Landa – stand any shot of making back the 2-plus minutes they need to catch Froome, much less close the gap to Thomas.

And the only ones who can put time into Froome and Thomas on Stage 20, a hilly team time trial, are Dumoulin and Roglič. Dumoulin is 1:50 down to Thomas but only 11 seconds behind Froome, while Roglič is 2:38 down to Thomas and 48 seconds behind Froome.

Roglič is a formidable talent, with the legs and the spirit to take on Sky. But despite being a year older than Dumoulin, he’s a little green. This is just his third season on the World Tour, and his third three-week Grand Tour ever. While I don’t think Roglič can win this year, he and teammate Steven Kruiswijk will play a key role in Dumoulin’s narrow path to victory.

tour de france

Though he likely won’t come back to win the Tour, Primož Roglič could play a key role in Dumoulin’s victory over Team Sky.
Getty Images Chris Graythen

So far, Dumoulin has shown himself to be level with or slightly better than Froome in the mountains. On stages 11 and 12, he jumped at the finish to nab second place. With time bonuses on offer every day for the top three on the stage, he nibbled up small seconds here and there that essentially caught him up with Froome.

If it were just Froome to contend with, Dumoulin could simply stay on the wheels and force a zero-tactics showdown of raw horsepower and handling skills in the time trial. The complicating factor is Thomas, and his significant advantage. Overcoming that will require great form, great tactics, and no small amount of luck. But it’s possible.

Dumoulin will also need help. Vincenzo Nibali’s departure from the race is a serious blow. Movistar is a tactical mess, with Nairo Quintana and Mikel Landa appearing to ride for themselves rather than as a team.

That leaves LottoNL-Jumbo. Kruiswijk nearly toppled Sky all by himself on Stage 12 with a spectacular, 70K solo attack. It’s likely he’ll try that again, and the pack is getting tired. Sky largely shut off the chase on stages 14 and 15, unwilling to spend the energy to control large breakaways. But on Stage 15, the peloton briefly split in two under pressure from the break, and wind and hills made for a long day for Sky at the front. The team is strong, but not invulnerable.

Critically, Dumoulin must find a way to play Froome and Thomas against each other. Froome is going for historic achievements: the first Giro-Tour double in 20 years and a chance to join the elite club of five-time Tour winners. He’s under enormous pressure to deliver, and he’ll have to attack a teammate to do so. Thomas, for his part, is caught between his own shot at winning the biggest race in the world and allegiance to his team leader. That’s an explosive dynamic Dumoulin might be able to exploit.

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Geraint Thomas is torn between his allegiance to Chris Froome and a shot at winning the Tour de France for himself.
Getty Images Tim de Waele

It comes down to two stages: 16 and 17. The first will require equal parts patience, aggression, and opportunism. Dumoulin’s best hope is that Movistar and LottoNL send a rider up the road on the first big climb of the day. If the remaining teams (looking at you, Astana and Ag2r) can somehow restrain themselves and force Sky to chase, they can burn out some of Sky’s strength, as happened on the Alpe d’Huez stage.

The most opportune moment to attack is near the summit of the Col du Portillon, the final climb on Stage 16, where Dumoulin could get a gap and force Sky into a mistake on the tricky descent to the finish. The descent is steep, on narrow roads with a few switchbacks, and there’s almost no flat run-out at the bottom. Crucially, Thomas has proven vulnerable on descents.

Stage 17? That’s all about raw aggression. Just 65K long, with three major mountains, it’s a day to put the screws to Sky by attacking early and forcing Froome and Thomas to chase. This is an excellent spot for alliances with riders like Landa and Bardet, who will be motivated either for a podium spot or to salvage a stage win. If Dumoulin can claw back most of his deficit to Thomas – or if Thomas blows up and Dumoulin has only Froome to worry about – then the final time trial shapes up nicely for him.

That’s all it takes to dethrone Sky: aggressive racing in the mountains, perfect tactics, a few alliances along the way, and some luck. Likely? Nah. But what are you gonna do, suck wheel all the way to Paris? As I’ve written before, Froome is aiming at a goal that would establish him as one of the greatest stage racers of all time.

History would remember that. It would also remember the man who denied him.

This article originally appeared on bicycling.com.

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