Stage 19 – Castelnau-Magnoac to Cahors – 188.3km – Friday, July 22

With the mountains behind them, the riders still left in the 2022 Tour de France can breathe a sigh of relief, as Stage 19 brings the race away from the Pyrenees and north toward Paris.

Beginning in Castelnau-Magnoac, the first 60km of the stage head downhill, which means a fast start as riders try to capitalise on what is most likely the last chance in this year’s Tour for a breakaway to take the stage victory. The Intermediate Sprint comes after only 38.4km of racing, as the peloton speeds through Auch. Belgium’s Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) has already locked-up the Tour’s Points Competition, but we could see him try and win the sprint anyway–because he’s Wout van Aert, and he can.

Things get a bit lumpy during the second hour of the stage, but the only categorised climbs come later: the Category 4 Côte de la cité médiévale de Lauzerte (2km @ 6.2%) and the Category 4 Côte de Saint-Daunès (1.6km @ 6.3%), which come with 52.6km and 35.7km left to race, respectively. Denmark’s Jonas Vingegaard locked-up the Tour’s King of the Mountains competition by winning Stage 18, so these climbs serve little purpose other than giving the breakaway two more chances to try and hold-off the chasing peloton or the teams without pure field sprinters a chance to drop men like the Netherlands’ Fabio Jakobsen (Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl) and Dylan Groenewegen (Team BikeExchange-Jayco) and Australia’s Caleb Ewan (Lotto-Soudal) before the finish.

By this point we should have an idea as to how the stage will play out: if a strong break makes it over these climbs with a lead approaching three minutes–and if some of the Tour’s remaining field sprinters are shot out the back of the peloton–we’ll see the break take the spoils. But if the sprinters’ teams, who haven’t had many chances in this year’s Tour, keep the break close and manage to nurse their fast men over these hills, we’ll see a bunch sprint at the finish in Cahors.

The finish itself is a bit tricky. The riders will speed south toward the centre of the town and take a quick left and then right over a bridge into town just before the 3km to-go banner. The course doglegs again just before 2km to-go, with two sweeping left-hand curves at 1.5km and 1km to-go as the race wraps around the banks of the Lot River.

The final kilometre rises uphill, so riders will need to time their efforts just right if they hope to win the stage. If they jump too early, they’ll lose their momentum before the line; too late and they won’t have time to hit their top gear.

Another hot day is expected, with partly cloudy skies and highs in the low-90s. Winds coming from the WSW will give the riders a nice tailwind.

Riders To Watch

It’s late in the Tour and everyone’s exhausted (which usually benefits a breakaway going all the way). But with so few chances for the sprinters in this year’s race, we think their teams will do whatever it takes to bring about a sprint finish in Cahors. The question is, which sprinters will be there to contest it?

If pure sprinters like Jakobsen, Groenewegen, or Ewan make it over the climbs with the leading group, they’re the favourites. Otherwise, look for one of the Tour’s hybrid sprinters (guys who can both climb and sprint) to take the win. Van Aert, Belgium’s Jasper Philippsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Australia’s Michael Matthews (Team BikeExchange-Jayco), Denmark’s Mads Pedersen (Trek-Segafredo) and Slovakia’s Peter Sagan (TotalEnergies) the best of this group.

And just to cover ourselves, if a break goes the distance, look for one of these three riders to be in the move: Slovenia’s Matej Mohorič (Bahrain-Victorious), Germany’s Nils Politt (BORA-hansgrohe), and Belgium’s Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo).

When to Watch

You can tune-in late for this one. By the Tour’s fastest estimate, the stage is set to end around 17h15, and with tailwinds expected throughout much of the day, this stage should be a fast one. We’ll probably tune-in at about 16h15Stage 19 to watch the final, hoping for an exciting battle between the breakaway and the teams hoping to set-up their sprinters to win the stage.