That day, Pogačar attacked three climbs from the finish and got a quick gap on the leading group of GC contenders. But Vingegaard never panicked. The Dane rode a steady tempo, ultimately catching the Slovenian and then shockingly outsprinting him to win the stage in Le Lioran. It was one of the most dramatic days in last year’s men’s Tour.

The race returns to the Massif Central on Stage 10 this July with a stage that’s even harder, thanks to eight categorized climbs, including an uphill finish on the steep Category 2 Puy de Sancy. A relatively short stage at just 165.3 kilometres, it will test whichever team is defending the yellow jersey to control the race. The riders will spend the day either climbing or descending on tight, technical roads.

It will also be the peloton’s tenth day of racing in a row, as the Tour’s first Rest Day comes a day later due to the organizers wanting this potentially explosive stage to take place on Bastille Day. After a hard, unpredictable first “week,” everyone will be exhausted, which means there could be splits in the peloton.

On paper, the course suits Pogačar as well as anyone else, especially if he learned his lesson after last year’s stage through the Massif Central. But if he’s burned too much energy trying to win stages and score time bonuses during the Tour’s punchy first week–and especially if it’s hot (Pogačar’s bad days have usually coincided with soaring temperatures)–Stage 10 could be a good day for Vingegaard and Visma-Lease a Bike to ambush the Slovenian.

Stage 13: A True Mountain Time Trial

So while it might be tempting to put a lot of stock in their performances during Stage 5’s long, flat ITT around Caen, we don’t think it will be as impactful as the Tour’s second race against the clock: Stage 13’s mountain time trial up the Col de Peyresourde to Peyragudes, a stage that we think strongly favours Vingegaard.

Over the past few years, Vingegaard has generally outperformed Pogačar in hillier time trials, and this one isn’t just hilly; it features an 8-kilometre Category 1 ascent that begins just a few kilometres after the start of the stage. In a vacuum, Vingegaard is probably a slightly better climber than Pogačar. But the Dane is less explosive than the Slovenian, which means he often gets gapped when Pogačar makes his initial acceleration. But as we saw in the recent Critérium du Dauphiné, Vingegaard doesn’t tend to lose much time after Pogačar has made his initial move. He rides a steady tempo, minimizing his losses and in some cases, reducing his deficit.

But a mountain time trial is a pure test of a rider’s climbing ability, with no accelerations to respond to. And as much as the riders are racing against each other to see who can finish the stage the fastest, they’re really racing against themselves.

So there will be no attacks for Vingegaard to respond to on Stage 13 and the climb to Peyragudes–just a long, steady maximum effort that Vingegaard has probably been simulating at training camps since April. Don’t be surprised if Vingegaard is in yellow by the end of the day.

Stage 18 – A High-Altitude Alpine Raid

Compared to the Pyrenees, the climbs in the Alps are longer and steadier, making them easier to simulate in training. And Vingegaard (thanks to the incredible staff assembled by Visma-Lease a Bike) is perhaps the best-trained cyclist in the world, especially when it comes to targeting specific stages and climbs. So it makes sense that the Alps have played a big role in Vingegaard’s two Tour de France victories (and Pogačar’s two Tour defeats).

For example, take Stage 11 in the 2022 Tour, a 151.7-kilometre stage through the Alps with two Hors catégorie summits, including a finish on the 2,404-metre Col du Granon, a high-altitude climb with a steep, 9.1 percent average gradient. Perhaps sensing that Pogačar wasn’t at his best that day, Vingegaard put his team to work earlier in the stage, asking them to set a hard pace on the 2,629-metre Col du Galibier to isolate Pogačar from the rest of his team. By the time Vingegaard launched an attack of his own on the Granon, Pogačar had nothing left to give: he lost 2:51 to the Dane, a deficit he would never overcome.

Then there’s Stage 17 from the 2023 Tour, a day that will probably go down as one of the worst of Pogačar’s career. One day after losing 1:38 to Vingegaard in a time trial (with an uphill finish), the Slovenian cracked big-time on the slopes of the Col de la Loze, a 2,304-metre summit high in the Alps. After famously saying, “I’m gone. I’m dead,” into his race radio, Pogačar lost over five minutes to Vingegaard–and with them, the Tour.

Well, Stage 18 in this year’s Tour de France takes the worst parts of those two stages (if you’re Pogačar) and rolls them into one to create a 171.5-kilometre stage with three massive Hors catégorie ascents–all with summits that sit above 2,000 metres–and a finish at the top of the Col de la Loze. It’s a stage that looks tailor-made for Vingegaard–and like a bad-day-waiting-to-happen for Pogačar.

Now, to be fair, Pogačar’s UAE Team Emirates team is significantly better than it was in 2022, and the Slovenian started the 2023 Tour undertrained thanks to a broken wrist he sustained in a crash in late April. But that doesn’t change the fact that Vingegaard has taken large chunks of the time from the Slovenian in the Alps, where the climbs are longer, steadier, and higher–which makes them ideal for a rider like Vingegaard–who’s probably been replicating them at training camps all season.

If he’s wearing (or close to wearing) the yellow jersey heading into Stage 18, expect Vingegaard and Visma-Lease a Bike to throw everything they have at Pogačar and UAE Team Emirates, with the pressure coming early and often throughout the stage. And if Pogačar’s not wearing the yellow jersey by the time the Tour wraps up in Paris three days later, expect Stage 18 to have played a major role in making it (not) happen.

Admittedly, it’s risky to bet against a living legend like Pogačar, but the Tour de France is a race that rewards courage and panache–so why not take a risk or two ourselves?