After a long transfer and rest day, the 2018 Tour de France enters the Alps for the first of three stages that should begin identifying which overall contenders have a real shot at winning. In total, Stage 10 covers five categorised climbs, including the race’s first Hors Categorie (“Beyond Category”) climb.

Beginning in Annecy, the 158.5K stage heads south along the western shore of Lake Annecy and up the other side. The day’s first climb, the Category 4 Col de Bluffy, comes less than 20K in, but it’s merely a warm up for the Category 1 Col de la Croix Fry. A breakaway should emerge by the top of the latter climb, with a few riders starting a serious bid to win the polka dot jersey.

Next comes a new climb for the Tour: the Montée du Plateau de Glières, a 6K Hors Categorie with an average gradient of 11.2 percent. At the top, riders cover 2K of gravel roads before descending back down to the valley. The plateau is tough, but at 90K from the finish, it comes too early to have a major impact on the stage outcome – unless someone loses contact with the main peloton.

Instead, expect most of the action to take place on the day’s final two ascents, the Col de Romme and the Col de la Colombière, both Category 1. Coming in quick succession toward the end—and after a long stretch of valley roads where riders who were dropped earlier might chase back on—they’re both steep enough to bring out the Tour’s main contenders.

The stage ends in Le Grand Bornand at the bottom of the Colombière, but the downhill finish won’t matter. There will be time gaps, and they could be significant.

Riders to Watch

In winning five of the last six Tours, Team Sky has defied conventional wisdom and taken the yellow jersey early, then played defense throughout the rest of the race. Today’s stage offers Sky a chance to take yellow for the first time this year, either with Geraint Thomas or Chris Froome.

But they’ll have competition: Movistar’s three co-leaders (Nairo Quintana, Alejandro Valverde, and Mikel Landa) made it through the first week relatively unscathed. The two climbs at the end of Stage 10 offer a perfect opportunity to launch coordinated attacks to weaken Team Sky.

And keep an eye on Bahrain-Merida’s Vincenzo Nibali. The 2014 Tour champ had a great first week, losing almost no time aside from his team’s mediocre performance in Stage 3’s team time trial. Nibai is a savvy rider who might wait a bit longer before showing his hand, but if he senses that the moment is right, the Italian could show everyone why he’s nicknamed “The Shark of Messina.”

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