So while we’d be incredibly surprised to see Seixas win the Tour, we wouldn’t be shocked if he wins a stage or two and spends some time in yellow. If he does, expect French fans to begin the countdown to the 2027 Tour de France immediately, and teams to intensify the bidding war for his services after his contract expires at the end of the season.

The Challengers

Poor Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe). In last year’s Tour, the then-24-year-old German finished third overall and won the white jersey as the Tour’s best young rider after his team captain, Slovenia’s Primož Roglič, crashed out. To thank him, his team announced the signing of Belgium’s Remco Evenepoel, who finished third overall in 2024.

Photo: Szymon Gruchalski//Getty Images

Now the team heads to the Tour with both riders sharing leadership, and it will be interesting to see how things turn out. Co-captains rarely find a way to coexist once the Tour intensifies, and we suspect BORA’s team managers will breathe a bittersweet sigh of relief if and when one of them has a bad day and falls out of contention.

Of the two, our money’s on Lipowitz, who’s the better climber and recently won the Tour of Slovenia. Evenepoel is taking a more novel approach and hasn’t raced since late April. He should be the better of the two early on, but we don’t have confidence he’ll last.

The Dark Horses

Like Lipowitz last year, the Tour often produces a surprise podium or top-five finish from a young rider or the teammate of one of the race’s prerace favourites. Spain’s Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek) is only 23 and already has two top-five finishes at the Vuelta a España. He left UAE for Lidl-Trek this past off-season, and a change of scenery could help him shine at the Tour.

Photo: Dario Belingheri//Getty Images

Speaking of UAE, the team has two riders in Mexico’s Isaac Del Toro, who finished second at last year’s Giro d’Italia and won the recent Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, and Great Britain’s Adam Yates, who has scored five top-10 finishes at the Tour, including third in 2023. Both could help Pogačar win the race for a fifth time and still finish on the podium themselves.

The Sprinters

The Tour doesn’t seem to favour sprinters as much as it once did, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be several making the trip to Barcelona hoping to win stages and take home the green jersey as the winner of the points classification.

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The defending champion, Italy’s Jonathan Milan, won’t return to defend his title this year. But his Lidl-Trek teammate, Denmark’s Mads Pedersen, will come to the Tour hoping to add more stages—he’s won two in the past—and maybe the green jersey to his résumé.

His biggest rivals should be Eritrea’s Biniam Girmay (NSN Cycling Team), who won three stages and the green jersey in 2024, and Belgium’s Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Premier Tech), who has won 10 stages from 2022 to 2025 and the green jersey in 2023. With no GC contenders on their rosters, both riders should have the full support of their teams on the Tour’s flatter stages.

The Climbers

The race for the polka dot jersey is always tough to predict, as it often goes to a rider who starts the race as a GC contender but falls out of contention during the first half of the race. And that’s when it’s not won by whoever takes yellow.

Photo: Szymon Gruchalski//Getty Images

Ecuador’s Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) won a mountain stage and the polka dot jersey in 2024. He’s had a rough start to his season but finished second at the recent Tour de Suisse and seems to be hitting his stride just in time for the Tour.

And then there’s the Netherlands’ Thymen Arensman (Netcompany INEOS), who won two mountain stages at last year’s Tour and finished fourth overall at this year’s Giro. While he’s starting the Tour as one of his team’s GC captains, he could soon shift his focus—and might fare better as a polka dot contender anyway.

We’re also keeping an eye on Italy’s Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious), a 25-year-old riding his first Tour de France this summer. A talented climber, he might start the race with GC ambitions, but the Italian could be better served by losing some time so he’s free to chase a mountain stage win and maybe the polka dot jersey.

The Opportunists

And while winning a jersey is nice, many riders come to the Tour just looking for stage wins, especially riders on teams that have never won one before.

Photo: Tim de Waele//Getty Images

For example, when he’s not leading out Philipsen, the Netherlands’ Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Premier Tech) will hunt for a stage win or two, while Ireland’s Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost) will look to add to the stage win and two days in yellow he enjoyed in last year’s Tour. With several punchy transitional days on this year’s route, both riders should find several chances that suit them.

As far as teams are concerned, look for French squads like Groupama-FDJ, Cofidis, and TotalEnergies to try to make their sponsors happy, while Swiss squad Tudor Pro Cycling, with France’s Julian Alaphilippe, tries to win the first Tour stage in team history.

Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team, with Great Britain’s Tom Pidcock, hasn’t won a stage at the Tour since 2017, when the team was called Team Dimension Data. The squad is back in France this summer and would love to reward its newish sponsors with a stage win or two.

And last but not least, let’s root for poor Team Picnic PostNL, which has won just one race so far this season. The Dutch squad is in rough shape and could use a stage or two to salvage its season.